By FEDERICO FONTANELLA
Trace One
The following is based on research conducted by Trace One, a global leader with over 30 years of experience in regulatory compliance and PLM solutions for the food and beverage industry. Its work has been featured in Newsweek, MSN, USA Today, ABC, and more.
A new study on behalf of Trace One has identified the U.S. counties and states that have suffered the greatest agricultural losses from natural disasters.
High grocery prices have been a defining economic story in recent years, driven by a combination of factors, including pandemic-related supply chain disruptions and labor shortages.
However, a growing driver of food price inflation has been the impact of natural disasters—such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes—on the nation’s agricultural output.
In April 2025, a devastating weather system caused widespread flooding across corn, rice, soybean, and wheat crops in eastern Arkansas, affecting 31% of the region’s agricultural acreage and inflicting an estimated $99 million in damage.
Similarly, Florida’s agricultural industry was devastated by a series of historic freezes in the 2025-2026 winter season.
Prolonged subfreezing temperatures across several counties caused more than $3.1 billion in agricultural losses to key commodities such as sugarcane, citrus, and strawberries, prompting the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to issue a federal disaster declaration to help producers recover.
The increased frequency of natural hazards has created a challenging environment for farmers. However, the effects of climate and weather-related disasters are not uniform and vary greatly by location.
To pinpoint where these events have the greatest impact on farmers and the nation’s food supply, researchers at Trace One—a company that provides AI-powered product lifecycle management (PLM) and regulatory compliance software to brands in food & beverage, cosmetics, and chemicals—conducted an in-depth analysis of the latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
According to FEMA estimates, natural hazards are expected to cause an average of $5.1 billion in agricultural losses annually, with drought the single largest contributor.
Drought alone accounts for more than half of these losses, averaging $2.8 billion annually. The financial impact of drought underscores its threat to farmers, particularly in regions that rely on water-intensive crops.
Other significant contributors to agricultural losses include cold waves, which cause $540 million in annual losses, as well as hail ($511 million) and hurricanes ($480 million).
Events such as inland flooding, strong winds, and heat waves collectively add hundreds of millions of dollars in losses to the yearly toll. While less frequent, disasters like tornadoes, wildfires, and winter weather also contribute to economic strain in certain regions.
Natural disasters that affect agriculture vary significantly across U.S. regions due to differing climates and geographic vulnerabilities.
Drought is a persistent challenge on the West Coast, particularly in California, as well as in the Southwest and parts of the Southern Plains, where water scarcity hampers crop yields and livestock production.
Hurricanes have the most severe impact in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, where states such as Florida and North Carolina frequently experience storm surges and high winds that devastate crops and infrastructure.
Inland flooding is most problematic in parts of the Midwest, whereas hailstorms are most damaging in Nebraska and North Dakota, where hail can severely damage crops and livestock operations.
Taken together, California leads the nation in agricultural losses from natural hazards, with farms in the state incurring an estimated $1.2 billion in losses annually. This figure dwarfs losses in other states, and drought is the most significant hazard affecting California’s vast agricultural sector.
On a per-farm basis, California reports an average loss of $18,522—the highest in any state—reflecting its reliance on high-value crops such as fruits, nuts, and vegetables, which are especially vulnerable to water shortages.
By comparison, Texas, which ranks second, faces an expected annual loss of $627 million, with droughts again the primary driver. Iowa ($373 million), Nebraska ($351 million), and Florida ($294 million) round out the top five, each experiencing a mix of droughts, hail, and hurricanes, though with lower total and per-farm losses than California’s.
At the county level, California continues to lead the rankings, with Fresno County reporting the largest expected annual losses of $244 million.
Drought is the primary hazard here, affecting high-value crops such as almonds, grapes, and pistachios.
Other California counties, including San Joaquin, Monterey, Merced, and Stanislaus, also rank highly, with annual losses ranging from $76 million to $89 million.
These counties experience some of the highest losses per farm, with Monterey County and Fresno County each losing an estimated $83,667 and $55,157 per year, respectively.
Total expected annual loss in Cameron County is $5,672,361; Expected annual loss per farm: $4,545; Expected annual loss rate: 3.8%; Total farms: 1,248.00; Total agricultural value: $166,186,764; Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Inland Flooding.
For reference, here are the statistics for the entire United States: Total expected annual loss: $5,067,319,563; Expected annual loss per farm: $2,717; Expected annual loss rate: 1.0%; Total farms: 1,865,000; Total agricultural value: $526,710,105,296; Worst natural hazard for agriculture: Drought.
The data used in this study are from FEMA’s National Risk Index and the USDA’s Census of Agriculture.
To identify locations where natural hazards have the greatest impact on the nation’s food supply, researchers at Trace One analyzed and ranked locations by their average annual economic loss (expected annual loss) in 2026 dollars for the agricultural sector.
This metric accounts for damage from natural hazards such as droughts, cold waves, hail, heat waves, hurricanes, inland flooding, strong winds, tornadoes, wildfires, and winter weather events, using data collected since 1996.
Total farm data was derived from 2022 county data and 2025 state data, the latest available data provided by the USDA.
In the event of a tie, locations with greater expected annual losses per farm were ranked higher. The analysis also incorporated the expected annual loss rate, calculated as the expected annual loss divided by the total annual value of the agricultural sector for each location.
Additionally, researchers identified the worst natural hazard for agriculture in each location, which is the hazard contributing the largest share of the expected annual loss.
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