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NEW STORM FORMING IN CARIBBEAN?
TROPICAL DEPRESSION # 2 MAKING LANDFALL (JULY 8, 2010, 9:30 a.m.)
Tropical Depression # 2 is moving onshore near South Padre Island this morning, ahead of schedule and without much strengthening as was forecast by the National Hurricane Prediction Center. Forecasters say because of the disorganized nature of the system, the exact center of the depression is difficult to detect at this hour. But the National Weather Service reports they believe the eye of the depression is still located about 40 miles offshore. The poorly organized system is packing winds of only about 30-35 miles per hour and as of 8:30 Thursday morning those winds were yet to be felt on the Texas coast. In spite of the lack of powerful winds, forecasters say TD 2 will still bring heavy rains to the Rio Grande Valley and all attention now must be focused on the potential for serious flooding along streams, rivers and especially low lying areas subject to flooding. Soil across the RGV remains saturated from recent rains associated with Hurricane Alex and additional rainfall is expected to cause flash flooding and to swell flood waters in the Rio Grande River. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for South Texas and a Flash Flood Warning will extend well into Friday.Tropical Depression # 2 is moving onshore near South Padre Island this morning, ahead of schedule and without much strengthening as was forecast by the National Hurricane Prediction Center. Forecasters say because of the disorganized nature of the system, the exact center of the depression is difficult to detect at this hour. But the National Weather Service reports they believe the eye of the depression is still located about 40 miles offshore. The poorly organized system is packing winds of only about 30-35 miles per hour and as of 8:30 Thursday morning those winds were yet to be felt on the Texas coast. In spite of the lack of powerful winds, forecasters say TD 2 will still bring heavy rains to the Rio Grande Valley and all attention now must be focused on the potential for serious flooding along streams, rivers and especially low lying areas subject to flooding. Soil across the RGV remains saturated from recent rains associated with Hurricane Alex and additional rainfall is expected to cause flash flooding and to swell flood waters in the Rio Grande River. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for South Texas and a Flash Flood Warning will extend well into Friday.
THURSDAY 2 a.m., JULY 8, 2010
DEPRESSION 2 APPROACHES!
 By LOGAN HAWKESSPecial To The San Benito News
With heavy rains and gusty winds of Hurricane Alex still fresh on our minds, a new and quick developing tropical depression has formed about 260 miles off the coast of Brownsville and appears headed on a collision course with southern Cameron County and expected to make landfall Thursday evening as a weak Tropical Storm Bonnie – at least that’s was the forecast at PRESS time Thursday.
Forecasters say the greatest danger associated with this system are heavy rains which began early Thursday and are expected to continue Friday. Gusty, tropical storm force winds are also expected by late Thursday afternoon.
A tropical storm warning is in effect from Baffin Bay south to the Rio Grande Valley including Eastern Cameron County. The latest NOAA storm track has TS Bonnie making landfall on the Texas-Mexico border - just about the mouth of the Rio Grande – sometime early Thursday evening. Locally heavy rains of 4-8 inches across the area with isolated downpours of up to 10 inches are expected as this storm passes over a rain-saturated Valley. Residents along the coast and near rivers and streams and in low lying areas should take immediate action in anticipation of heavy rains and possible flooding through Thursday night and into Friday.
Tropical Depression Two was packing mild winds of about 35 miles per hour as of 6 a.m. Thursday, but is expected to gain rapid strength in the hours ahead. The system is moving north-northwest at 14 miles per hour and is expected to pick up speed before landfall.
Forecasters say the fast moving system should prevent the storm from reaching hurricane status before landfall. Of primary concern are swollen rivers and streams, including the Rio Grande River, which is near flood stage already near San Benito because of torrential rains and runoffs associated with Hurricane Alex. A Flash Flood Watch has been reissued for much of the Valley and surrounding areas.
Coastal residents are urged to monitor the latest developments with the storm. Portisabelsouthpadre.com will provide the latest important updates as this system moves on shore Thursday.
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 THE LATEST ALEX UPDATE
(THURS., JULY 1 - 4:30 a.m.)
Now that tropical winds have calmed, TXDot officials have reopened the Queen Isabella Memorial Causeway connecting South Padre Island to the Texas Main. The decision was reached this morning with the advice and cooperation of Island officials who are anxious to provide the opportunity for those stranded on the Island to leave and, more importantly perhaps, to allow delivery trucks to head back on to the Island to replenish supplies at gas stations, restaurants and Island retail stores. The Island is anxious to "put their house back in order" in time for the influx of what they hope will be healthy Fourth of July holiday weekend crowds.
What's left of Hurricane Alex continues to dump rain across Mexico and parts of the Rio Grande Valley, promising to bring big trouble to Cities like Monterrey that must deal with heavy rain runoffs from the mountains. As for the Valley, many are saying we "dodged the bullet" when it comes to the lack of serious wind damage associated with the Category Two storm, though damages are still being assessed and so far no word on how bad Valley agriculture crops will do after heavy and widespread rains and flooding. By 10 p.m. Wednesday night Alex was still a powerfl Cat2 hurricane in spite of being over land, and forecasters are wondering if the storm isn't one for the record books. For one, the intense central pressure of Alex, at one point as low as 947 millibars, was as intense as many larger, major mid-season storm systems. Beginning Sunday, the storm began to baffle forecast models and forecasters who admitted Alex wasn't your ordinary storm. All in all, in spite of widespread flooding from torrential rains and at least one funnel cloud that touched down near Brownsville, Alex was kind to the Valley with few major wind events and much less damaged than caused by Hurricane Dolly.
Hurricane Alex and its 85-mile-per-hour winds is losing strength as it moves inland over northeastern Mexico at this hour. The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida says the Category One storm is located about 135 miles to the south-southwest of Brownsville, Texas. Alex is making its way westward near ten miles per hour. This, after Alex -- the first hurricane of this year's Atlantic hurricane season -- made landfall Wednesday in northeastern Mexico as a Category Two storm.
Hurricane Alex has been blamed for at least one death in Mexico after making landfall on Wednesday. CNN cites Carlos Eduardo Aguilar of Nuevo Leon's Civil Protection agency in Mexico as saying a contractor working in Monterrey was killed when a wall fell on him as a result of heavy rain. In addition, officials say the outer bands of Alex appeared to impact Brownsville with as many as six tornadoes reported in the area. Alex has begun losing some of its strength as it moves inland over northeastern Mexico.
If it were up to Island Convention and Visitor Executive Director Dan Quandt, Fourth of July on the Island would go on as if Alex had never existed. Quandt says the Island, and the Valley, are very lucky that they weren't in the direct path of Alex and says that in spite of some sporadic wind damage and power outages across the Island, the weekend should bring "business as usual" for the big summer holiday and says he hopes that those with travel plans to the Island for the weekend will keep to those plans. Quandt says work crews will be out today cleaning up beaches as possible and believes most damages done by the storm can be corrected before Friday afternoon when he says he hopes the crowds will begin filtering on to the Island. Traditionally, the Fourth holiday is the busiest weekend of the year for Island merchants and an important event for the Island's economy. Quandt says he needs to get the word out that the Island is ready for the multitudes and the damages have been repaired. It's time, he says, to celebrate.
(WED, JUNE 30 - 6:30 P.M.)
The Hurricane Prediction Center in Miami has upgraded Hurricane Alex to a Category 2 storm. The notification was released about 6:00 p.m. Wednesday. As of this time, the eye of Alex has hit the Mexican coast near San Fernando, about 100 miles south of Matamoros. The storm is expected to continue to make its way onshore into the evening hours, bringing more rain bands and high winds to parts of coastal Texas. The storm is now located at 24.4N 97.2W, or about 55 MILES NE of La Pesca, Mexico and 105 MILES south of Brownsville. Maximum sustained winds at this hour are recorded at 105 MPH. Present movement is to the west at 12 MPH. Minimum central pressure is currently 950 MB, or 28.05 inches. Stay tuned to 710 KURV for the latest developments.
(Wednesday, JUNE 30, 3:00 p.m.)
Strong rainbands associated with Hurricane Alex have been moving onshore since late Tuesday night. By 11 a.m. Wednesday, torando activity and warnings had been issued and heavy rains have fallen across the Laguna Madre and especially in Brownsville. Sustained winds of 52 mph have been reported on the Island and Doppler continues to monitor small, fast moving and dangerous funnel clouds in heavier rain bands. A tornado warning remains in effect through 8"45 p.m. Wednesday for most all of Cameron County, especially coastal regions.
The Queen Isabella Memorial Causeway is now closed. TxDOT officials stopped all traffic starting around 1:30 p.m. as high winds associated with another Alex rainband moved across the area. Unofficial wind speeds were clocked near 52 mph according to law enforcement officials. Heavy rain continues to fall in the Laguna Madre area Wednesday afternoon with heavier showers expected when Alex makes landfall in Mexico - about 80 miles south of the Rio Grande River -- sometime around midnight. Tornado activity has been reported by the National Weather Service near South Padre Island, Port Isabel and across the Laguna Madre region. One fast moving cloud quickly passed near Holly Beach and Los Fresnos and was last reported approaching Olmito near Brownsville. Tornado warnings and watches have been issued, some expired, and more are expected in the hours ahead.
Hurricane Alex winds have now increased to 85 miles per hour and continue to stregthen over warm Gulf waters. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Prediction Center in Miami say Alex could become a Category 2 storm as it makes landfall Thursday morning.
(TUESDAY, JUNE 29 10 p.m.)
It's official. Alex has become the first hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season.
The National Hurricane Weather Prediction Center upgraded Alex from a strong tropical storm to hurricane status at about 9:30 p.m. Tuesday evening. The NWS is estimating maximum sustained wind speeds have reached 75 miles per hour and forecasters say the storm will grow in intensity in the hours ahead.
Located approximately 255 miles SE of Brownsville moving northwestward at 9 miles per hour, the system is expected to create a major rain event for the Rio Grande Valley. A flood warning and hurricane warning is in effect for the entire Valley. Residents living in low lying areas should consider moving to higher ground immediately. Rain bands are expected to move over land overnight and the first tropical force winds could arrive on South Padre Island shortly after noon.
South Padre Island and Port Isabel Mayors Bob Pinkerton and Joe Vega say they are not calling for a mandatory evacuation, but advise property owners in low lying areas and those with special needs or concerns to participate in a voluntary evacuation.
All beaches on South Padre Island, both city and county, are officially closed until the storm event is over and clean up can take place. However, Convention and Visitor's Bureau executive director Dan Quandt reports hotels remain open and says he believes once the storm has passed the weekend will experience good weather and what he hopes are substantial crowds.
Residents and visitors are reminded the State Department of Transportation will close the Queen Isabel Causeway when wind speeds reach 45 mph. All high-profile vehicles should be off the Island before mid morning Wednesday.
Heavy rain has fallen across much of Laguna Madre on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning is expected to bring heavier and more sustained showers. Landfall is expected somewhere near the noon hour. Building security projects and last minute shopping supplies should be complete by now, if not as early in the morning as possible as winds will increase steadily throughout the day.
The latest track takes the center of Hurricane Alex on shore about 80-90 miles south of the Rio Grande in Mexico, but forecasters are warning the dangerous northeast quadrant of the storm is likely to pack the highest winds and heaviest rain showers. There is also a chance for the fast development of funnel clouds associated with land falling tropical systems.
All outdoor plants and lawn furniture should be secured as should any other material that could become projectiles in high wind conditions.
Here is the latest tracking map from the Hurricane Prediction Center in Miami:
(Monday, June 28, 6:30 PM)
All eyes in South Texas are focused on Tropical Storm Alex in the Southern Gulf. Hurricane watches are in effect along the southern Texas coastline as Tropical Storm Alex approaches. Alex's maximum sustained winds have strengthened to nearly 60 miles an hour with higher gusts. WeatherBug meteorologist Steve Prinzivalli says there's a possibility Alex could become a Category Three hurricane. The center of the storm is currently about 500 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas with top sustained winds of 60 miles per hour. A hurricane watch is currently in effect in the U.S. from Baffin Bay South of Corpus Christi to the Mexican border. As of 4 p.m. Monday, June 28:
LOCATION...20.5N 91.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
UPDATE MONDAY, JUNE 24, 12:14 a.m.
As of press time Monday, Alex continued to churn the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf, destined to make a second landfall in the hours or days ahead. By noon on Monday, it was still not certain where that eventual second landfall will occur.
Alex had been downgraded to a tropical depression hours after assailing the Belize-Mexico shore on Saturday. But it didn't take long for Alex to become a Tropical Storm once again. Less than three hours after reaching the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters upgraded Alex from a tropical depression to official storm status again, leading some forecasters to fear the system could become a CAT 3 hurricane by the time it makes its second landfall, somewhere on the Mexico or Texas coast line. The latest NOAA tracking map indicates there is a chance the storm could assault the lower Texas coast line and residents around the Laguna Madre and the Valley are being advised to remain alert to the latest developments.
There seems to be some disagreement over forecast models because of the changing characteristics of Alex. Most models still indicate an Eastern Mexican coast landfall event this week while at least three models indicate a weakening of the ridge that has kept the storm on a more westerly track. Under the conditions of these models, the storm could slow significantly and take a more north-northwestward track in the days ahead, thereby eventually threatening the Texas coast.
The storm has already forced the closure of two major Mexican oil ports but is not an imminent threat to oil spill recovery efforts in the Gulf of Mexico. While BP is continuing the oil-siphoning effort, Shell Oil has closed subsea production on two Gulf platforms due to the storm threat.
The Mexican government has closed the ports of Dos Bocas and Cayo Arcas, which handle 80-percent of that nation's Gulf export shipping due to poor weather and strong surf conditions.
The first named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was producing sustained winds of 50 miles an hour Monday and was centered roughly 85 miles south-southwest of Campeche, Mexico, Monday afternoon. Forecasters are expecting Alex to gain strength again Monday and Tuesday.
TS ALEX UPDATE (Sun., June 27, 12:00 p/m/)
of noon on Sunday, Tropical Storm Alex, churning across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, has been downgraded to a tropical depression with sustained winds around 30-35 MPH. The storm made its first of two expected landfalls overnight. Alex is moving to the west-northwest at 12 miles an hour. The storm is expected to gain strength however once again after moving back over the warm Gulf of Mexico this evening. Alex is projected to drop between four and eight inches of rain on southern Mexico, Guatemala and Belize through Monday morning and is expected to gain considerable strength over the next 48 hours. Forecast models indicate Alex could still become a hurricane before making a second landfall on the eastern Mexican Gulf coast. Interests from as far north as Texas to as far south as Veracruz should remain on alert as new developments occur. Forecasters are uncertain whether a ridge that is in place across the U.S. will steer the storm westwardly into Mexico, or whether the storm will override a weakening ridge and venture further north.
TS ALEX FORMS, SLAMS MEXICO, HEADS FOR GULF
By LOGAN HAWKES
San Benito News
As of 10 p.m. Saturday evening, a strengthening Tropical Storm Alex assailed the Belizian coastline just north of Belize City, some 90 miles south of the Belize-Mexico border and the Yucatan seaport at Chetumal. Though the central pressure of the storm rose slightly just before landfall, intense thunderstorm blasts developed near the center of pressure, promising 50 MPH winds and as much as 15 inches of rain across parts of the Yucatan, Belize and northern Guatemala. Serious flooding is expected in the lowlands of Mexico and northern Belize.
Now that the storm center has land fallen, weakening of the system is expected tonight and Sunday as the storm continues its north-northwest trek across the Yucatan, where it is expected to emerge in warm Gulf waters near Campeche.
While forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say the forecast track was adjusted slightly to the right, or north, of the original track Saturday evening, they say they still believe a subtropical ridge persisting over the northern Gulf will steer the system more to the west in the days ahead.
Advisories have been issued for all areas of the Yucatan's Eastern coastline and stretching across to communities on the opposing Gulf side of the peninsula. Coastal residents in South Texas are advised to stay up to date with tracking forecasts and take time now to review emergency plans in the event the storm should reach local waters.
Evacuations of nonessential personnel from platforms and drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico are underway by Shell Oil ahead of the storm. The efforts to clean up the massive oil spill in the Gulf are currently not threatened by Alex. Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen says officials "understand it's moving westerly at this time and does not threaten the site."
Forecasters say Alex could well become a hurricane before making a second landfall in Eastern Mexico from Veracruz to as far north as the Rio Grande Valley.
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